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Forum:2015 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
Betting pools for this page Future start Post any storms below here. Ryan1000 05:23, January 15, 2015 (UTC) Arabian Sea 01A.ASHOBAA Depresion ARB 01 First storm of the NIO season, expected to become Ashobaa as it heads northwest off of India, and could become a cat 1 before weakening and likely dissipating near the Gulf of Aden. Ryan1000 22:48, June 7, 2015 (EYEANWLTC) Oh boy! I love tracking hurricanes, and I just know that this one will be a doozy! Cheers, --[[User:PuffleXTREME|'Puffle']] [[User_talk:PuffleXTREME|Let's party HARD!]] 01:19, June 8, 2015 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Ashobaa Now a cyclonic storm with 40 mph (3-min) winds and 994 mbars. Likely to intensify further, but not past cat 1 strength. Ryan1000 19:20, June 8, 2015 (UTC) : Intensified a little, but fell short of hurricane strength. It'll be onshore in Oman in a day or two. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2015 (UTC) hope if we don't see an 2013 Helen repeat. (ended up being a C1 in post analysis) looks disorganized. totally destructive|request tracks to me! 03:23, June 11, 2015 (UTC) ::Ashobaa is closing in on Oman, but with disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the final JTWC advisory noted a well-defined circulation supporting winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). On the IMD side, the system is still a cyclonic storm, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg). Additionally, while the JTWC predicts Ashobaa's dissipation within the next day, the IMD expects it to stay intact for the next 36 hours despite land interaction and moderate shear, before degenerating after making landfall in Oman. Hopefully, this storm causes minor impacts at most for that nation. It has already delayed the onset of the southwest monsoon over India, which could be detrimental to regions recovering from the deadly heat wave. AndrewTalk To Me 20:07, June 11, 2015 (UTC) Deep Depression Ashobaa The IMD notes continued signs of disorganization, and for this, has weakened Ashobaa into a deep depression with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (3-min) and a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). Despite SST's of ~29 to 30C around the depression, increasing shear should continue its demise. AndrewTalk To Me 02:45, June 12, 2015 (UTC) Depression Ashobaa Ashobaa may have weakened, but Oman is beginning to report rough seas. Despite relaxing of shear, winds have fallen to 25 knots (30 mph) (3-min) and continued land interaction should cause the system to become a low-pressure area within the next day, and from there make landfall over the nation. AndrewTalk To Me 13:01, June 12, 2015 (UTC) now looks like a remnant low. totally destructive|request tracks to me! 17:59, June 13, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Ashobaa Ashobaa is officially dead per the IMD. However, the JTWC has noted the system's convection has wrapped closer to its LLCC, despite some 20 to 30 kts of shear. Additionally, although the models forecast Ashobaa gradually weakening, the JTWC gives a medium chance of regeneration. Moreover, the latter's estimated intensity for the cyclone is 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-min), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). On a side note, Ashobaa did not pass through Oman without impact. Nearly nine inches of rain fell on Masirah Island in just a day, and widespread power outages were reported across the nation. Also, in the nearby UAE, there have been reports of waterlogging. AndrewTalk To Me 12:42, June 14, 2015 (UTC) :Ashobaa's remnants have dissipated according to the JTWC, and the system has therefore been dropped from their outlook. AndrewTalk To Me 01:25, June 15, 2015 (UTC) Bay of Bengal 01B.NONAME 96B.INVEST new system in less than a week :O. looks a bit lopsided. totally destructive|get hyper! 22:02, June 17, 2015 (UTC) Depression BOB 01 Somehow, the invest got enough organization to become the first Bay of Bengal depression of the year, BOB 01 (the JTWC has not issued advisories yet). With most of the deep convection confined to its western quadrant, winds are currently at 25 knots (30 mph) (3-min) with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg) per the IMD. Due to BOB 01's proximity to Odisha and moderate shear is affecting its southern quadrant, both the IMD and JTWC only forecast a low chance of further development before making landfall later today. Also, the latter acknowledges the lack of any model guidance, hinting we may have to wait for another named storm in the NIO. However, Odisha should still prepare for BOB 01, as it could still be a serious threat. AndrewTalk To Me 13:19, June 20, 2015 (UTC) :Little has changed intensitywise regarding BOB 01. Most of its strongest winds are located in the southern quadrant, and it should make landfall over Odisha within 24 hours. However, the JTWC has stopped monitoring the system, and they have noted the system has dissipated. For now, I will leave the title as it is, until the IMD reports the same. AndrewTalk To Me 20:55, June 20, 2015 (UTC) July 02B.KOMEN Depression BOB 02 suprisingly. theres a massive moosoon-like tropical storm active in the NIO. forecasted to landfall in Bangladesh in the next day or so. the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 03:20, July 29, 2015 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Komen (Deep Depression BOB 02) and we have another named storm in the NIO. currently named by the Bangladesh NWS. not by the IMD. (like 2007's Yemyin) the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 02:43, July 30, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Komen Komen has dissipated over the Indian subcontinent (Wikipedia says its still active, but I have found no sources to confirm this). Anyway, despite being weak, this storm was a disaster for Burma, and I am surprised no one has mentioned anything yet. To put things into perspective, Komen killed nearly 30 people in the nation and left thousands more homeless. As a matter of fact, more fatalities could be reported as rescue teams reach harder hit areas Additionally, rainfall totals in excess of three feet in Bangladesh has killed a further 40 and even more deaths have been reported in West Bengal from other causes, like snake bites. The president of Burma has declared some areas of the country a disaster zone, and I can only imagine how worse things will get. AndrewTalk To Me 15:13, August 2, 2015 (UTC) At least 170 have been killed by this storm. Too many, but not as many compared to the previous storms that struck the area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:30, October 30, 2015 (UTC) October 03A.NONAME Deep Depression ARB 03 looks that we got something in the arabian sea --the destructive Hurricane Odile • • 17:01, October 10, 2015 (UTC) 04A.CHAPALA Deep Depression ARB 04 this thing is rapidly intensfying. deep depression by the IMD. this is a strong TS for shure. could this dethrone Gonu (2007)? --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 17:05, October 28, 2015 (UTC) : Finally some storm formed somewhere! It's been looking good, and is forecast to become an extremely severe cyclonic storm. Hoping for a powerful storm as long as there's minimal/no damages! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:46, October 28, 2015 (UTC) :: It should be named very soon, probably by tomorrow. The JTWC forecast makes this a powerful cyclone possibly threatening Yeman/Oman. I also hope for something powerful, as long as it won't significantly threaten land! [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] (Wanna Chat? • • ) 00:57, October 29, 2015 (UTC) :::: If the JTWC forecast verifies and this hits Yemen as a category 2 storm, it would be the first hurricane-strength storm to strike the country, much like Gonu '07 was for Oman. I don't often post here (since the NIO is quiet most of the year), but this could be a historic storm and it definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 03:51, October 29, 2015 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Chapala Weather Underground has yet to show the upgrade, but this thing is named now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:36, October 29, 2015 (UTC) : By one minute wind speeds, this is already a category one hurricane, although it's not a severe cyclonic storm yet. It's intensifying quite fast though, and this is likely going to be an extremely severe cyclonic storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:08, October 29, 2015 (UTC) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala short fused bomb here... --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 21:32, October 29, 2015 (UTC) : Not good. JTWC already expects a cat 4 out of this, though given Chapala's highly impressive sattelite appearance and the fact it's moving over very favorable conditions, this could even become a Gonu-like category 5 storm before running ashore in Yemen. This isn't looking good for them... Ryan1000 03:28, October 30, 2015 (UTC) ::This is just not looking good for Yemen, since it could really threaten them in the future as a powerful, potentially C5 cyclone. Yemen is a very poor country that really does not deserve any threats from natural disasters such as this, but luckily the forecast track isn't really directed towards major population centers. This is just...going to be threatening. Hope they make it out safely... [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] �� (Happy )�� 04:19, October 30, 2015 (UTC) Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala And so it explosively intensifies... this is not looking good for Yemen... Winds are now clocking up to 195 kph (3-minute sustained), 250 kph (1-min) — had this been existing in the WPac, this could have been a super typhoon (per JTWC standards)... it's good though that it is forecasted to hit a sparsely populated area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:27, October 30, 2015 (UTC) : It's expected to becme a category 5 super cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours, before weakening to a cat 4 or 3 at landfall. I don't think Yemen has ever seen something like this heading their way. Ryan1000 12:11, October 30, 2015 (UTC) : the HWRF goes bonkers with Chapala. keeps it as a super cyclonic storm for a pair of days. --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 15:00, October 30, 2015 (UTC) ::: If Patricia hadn't happened, that model would be predicting possibly the strongest tropical cyclone in 2015! It's still forecast to reach C5 status, but it's 1-minute winds have weakened slightly. This is quite a large storm. And it's going to go smash into a desert. I never thought of deserts ever getting tropical cyclones! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:15, October 30, 2015 (UTC) ::::: Looks like Chapala underwent an ERC. It's eye had dissappeared a while ago but it's now visible again. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:42, October 31, 2015 (UTC) :::::: I've read on Wikipedia that powerful TCs like this are rare over the Arabian Sea, and this is the first such intense cyclone in the area since Goni in 2007. However, unlike Goni (which struck northern Oman and Iran), this one is heading towards Yemen. It is a poor country so they should take all precautionary measures to protect themselves from Chapala. The only good thing is that it should strike in an area with less population, hopefully reducing potential death and damage tolls drastically. Chapala should have reached its peak intensity by now, and weakening is forecast from here on out. Maybe it won't be a super cyclonic storm. BTW, happy Halloween! :D [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] �� (Happy )�� 17:54, October 31, 2015 (UTC) :::::::: Goni? You mean Gon''u. Either way, this thing is now down to a 130 mph cat 4, and Chapala is forecast to hit Yemen as a cat 1 now, but it could still be bad, since they've never seen a storm move in from the southern Arabian Sea/Gulf of Aden before. 'Ryan1000' 23:10, October 31, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::Gonu is too similar to the name of a recent typhoon, that's how I managed to screw up the name. :P They can sometimes happen when I see a name that's too similar to another name. If there was a storm named, for example, Koppa, then I might mistakenly call it "Koppu" due to another recent typhoon. Anyway, like I said, it has reached peak strength by now. Yemen might see some devastation due to how it is very rarely hit by cyclones, but be glad it's not going head-on into a major population center such as Aden (but Mukalla could receive a lot of Chapala's force due to how close it is to the forecast track). [[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] �� (Happy )�� 05:16, November 1, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::It weakened to a 120 mph category 3, but it's since strengthened back to 125 mph and deep convection's expanded. Pretty amazing for a tropical cyclone right between two desert landmasses, I'd say. Interesting and dangerous landfall expected from this, and deaths will likely be caused by flash floods. I hope it isn't too bad, but a system with hurricane force winds and many inches of rain cannot be good for a desert. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:52, November 2, 2015 (UTC) :::::::::::::This is only the second time on record a tropical cyclone moved through the Gulf of Aden, the other time was a storm in 1984, and that was only a tropical storm when it did so, this is a category 3 storm that could cause some serious damage to Yemen. It'll probably weaken to a category 1 when it makes landfall, but even a storm of that intensity could inflict major damage to a desert country like Yemen. 'Ryan1000' 11:57, November 2, 2015 (UTC) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala (2nd time) It has just weakened down to this strength according to Wikipedia. This is really looking like a large threat for the Yemen residents, and I hope they're prepared for this rare event. A tropical cyclone in a desert country is never a good thing, especially hitting countries which rarely get tropical cyclones, as they usually aren't prepared for the potential devastation it could cause. Huge storm systems in the desert like what this one will be could cause large and massive flash flooding since deserts never receive much rain and also lack plants, grass, etc. I hope Yemen makes it out safe from this potentially destructive and deadly storm. I have got a new simplified signature, BTW. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 22:13, November 2, 2015 (UTC) Landfall Satellite images show that Champala has made landfall in Yemen, likely at hurricane strength. Currently it's likely causing gigantic flash floods, and I hope that people responded to the threat of a tropical cyclone in such an unlikely place. (Needs updating as to where it made landfall) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:44, November 2, 2015 (UTC) : Chapala made landfall about 50 miles southwest of one of Yemen's few major port cities, Al Mukalla, but they're still probably getting tropical storm-force winds and very heavy rainfall nonetheless. Flash flooding and mudslides are almost a definite where it hit, but hopefully evacuations (and scarce population) could save lives. 'Ryan1000' 02:30, November 3, 2015 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Chapala (2nd time) now an TS per JTWC. cyclonic storm by the IMD --HurricaneOdile | drop something in the box • • 16:03, November 3, 2015 (UTC) : It looks like I kinda missed the landfall, but due to scarce population and evacuations, I doubt we'll see so many deaths from this storm. Damage could be extensive in the small desert towns and cities it struck though. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 00:16, November 4, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Chapala ...and it has dissipated! Despite it being the first hurricane strength storm to make landfall in Yemen on record, destruction wasn't so great and there were no deaths on the Yemen mainland. According to the wiki article, "Early reports indicate that at least 450 homes have been damaged or destroyed in the Yemen mainland along with 34 injuries." The sea levels also rose to 9 ft, destroying the city's seafront. The majority of the deaths (3) were in the island of Socotra, and the other death was when an Iranian-flagged vessel capsized offshore Somalia on November 1. So at least it wasn't as bad as originally feared. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:08, November 4, 2015 (UTC) November 05A.MEGH AOI: Arabian Sea Not yet a TD, but has a "medium" chance of development according to the JTWC. There is a chance we'll see "Megh" out of this. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:08, November 4, 2015 (UTC) There is absolutely no way this thing is not a depression yet. T-Numbers are at 2.5 which supports tropical storm intensity, and it even looks to have a hint of an eye. I think this is one of the best looking systems I've ever seen that's not officially a tropical cyclone. Might be another powerful storm like Champala. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:31, November 5, 2015 (UTC) Cyclonic Storm Megh 3 minute winds have reached 40 mph and so the system has finally been named. Satellite estimates are now T3.0, and it's supposed to become a severe cyclonic storm by tomorrow. Hopefully this one doesn't hit land, I haven't seen a forecast track yet. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:41, November 5, 2015 (UTC) :Basically Chapala but weaker.--Isaac829 20:39, November 5, 2015 (UTC) ::I'm surprised to see another storm that would take a path similar to Chapala so soon after the said storm. Although this one should be weaker, forecast peak is 80 knots according to the JTWC. And this one is going straight into Socotra, and I won't be surprised if Megh is more destructive in Socotra than Chapala. For the Yemen mainland, it's going to be a weak TD by the time it arrives, so impacts in the Yemen mainland shouldn't be as much as Chapala. It is also posing a slight threat to Somalia. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 01:42, November 6, 2015 (UTC) ::::It actually is expected to hit the northern tip of the Somalia peninsula as a category 1 storm after passing just south of Socotra, and just like Chapala was the first hurricane-strength storm to hit Yemen on record, Megh could be the first one to do so on Somalia. Like Chapala, this one bears watching, as it's heading towards an area that typiclly doesn't experience tropical cyclones. 'Ryan1000' 10:53, November 6, 2015 (UTC) I will not say anything if the damage in Socotra by Megh was more than Chapala. Also, it might hit a week after Chapala. Worse, the Yemeni Civil War is happening right now, so i hope the deaths are not large, unlike Chapala, which was stronger and hit during the civil war as well. MarcusSanchez My Own Talk Administrator of HHW 13:20, November 6, 2015 (UTC)MarcusSanxhez Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh Megh's been rapidly intensifying, with an eye appearing, and it's now a VSCS. Chapala was the first hurricane strength landfall in Yemen in modern record, and now Megh might make a hurricane strength landfall only one week later. Crazy how that's even possible... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:14, November 7, 2015 (UTC) : This one won't be as strong when it reaches mainland Yemen, but unlike Chapala, Socotra could take a direct hit from this thing, which could spell a lot of destruction there. I also don't think there's ever been a November with two category 2 storms (Chapala and Megh) in the Arabian Sea before. 'Ryan1000' 01:40, November 8, 2015 (UTC) : So much Deja Vu going on right now........... leeboy100My Talk! 03:48, November 8, 2015 (UTC) Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Megh The southern half of Megh's eyewall is slamming Socotra right now, I wouldn't be surprised if that island suffers serious or near total devastation from this now-125 mph storm. Like Chapala, this might even become a 4 near or in the Gulf of Aden before weakening to a cat 1 before hitting Yemen. Yemen experienced no recorded hurricane-strength landfalls in recorded history before this year. This could be the second one to do so in just a week's time. This is crazy for the NIO. 'Ryan1000' 12:05, November 8, 2015 (UTC) : Looks like landfall and less favorable conditions have weakened the storm. The eye's no longer apparent. Considering that it hit Socotra directly, this might be more damaging than Chapala was. The NIO is crazy right now! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:35, November 8, 2015 (UTC) :: Woah, it became an extremely severe cyclonic storm? I thought it wouldn't be as strong as Chapala! Anyway, Socotra is being pounded by this thing right now, and could be as destructive if not more destructive than Chapala on the island. Later on, Somalia and mainland Yemen should get some more impacts. It's pretty rare and unusual to see two storms move through the same area back-to-back, especially in the Socotra-Yemen area. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 17:14, November 8, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of Megh Surprised nobody updated this, but Megh has died out over mainland Yemen. Hopefully it wasn't a really destructive one! '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 06:14, November 10, 2015 (UTC) :Update: Actually it was a pretty destructive one. From Wikipedia: "On 8 November Megh made a direct hit on the Yemeni island of Socotra as a strong Category 3-equivalent storm where it caused extensive devastation, killing at least fourteen people and injured dozens of others. An estimated 3,000 houses were damaged or destroyed and hundreds of fishing boats were sunk." '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:28, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :So sad. R.I.P to the people who were killed. I hate it when storms hit areas that were hit by storms just a week before (or day before.....as in Bonnie & Charley in 2004) Leeboy100Veteran's Day! 21:23, November 11, 2015 (UTC) 03B.NONAME Depression BOB 03 A new system in the Bay of Bengal has been organizing, and it is now offically a depression. It's going to hit land soon, but it may have a chance to get named before then. By the way, this has been an AOI for a while, but it was never mentioned here by anyone before this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:35, November 8, 2015 (UTC) : The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on this depression, and we could see our next named storm from this. Hopefully. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 17:16, November 8, 2015 (UTC) Remnants of BOB 03 It peaked as a deep depression before slamming into India, and unfortunately, we never saw this storm become named. The JTWC gives it a "low" chance of redevelopment though, probably if it crosses into the Arabian Sea or something. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 05:24, November 11, 2015 (UTC) : I'm surprised that it never got named - it looked pretty good. It would be nice to see it redevelop though! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:24, November 11, 2015 (UTC) :: I don't see it on the JTWC outlook anymore, oh well. I still hope it ''tries ''to redevelop though. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 21:05, November 11, 2015 (UTC) ::: still there... CMC redevelops this, while other models don't --hon hon hon | hon hon hon • • 16:48, November 13, 2015 (UTC) :::: This should be moving into the Arabian Sea by now. It still looks extremely disorganized on satellite and I don't think it'll become much. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:23, November 13, 2015 (UTC) 97B.INVEST 97B.INVEST some model support on this one --hon hon hon | hon hon hon • • 16:48, November 13, 2015 (UTC) : If it's the one located east of Sri Lanka, the JTWC is giving it a '''low '''chance of developing. Hopefully, this is our next named storm. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 23:21, November 13, 2015 (UTC) :: The JTWC outlook remains the same; not sure if it will become much anymore as it strikes Sri Lanka. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''' 03:21, November 16, 2015 (UTC) ::: It's now up to a medium chance (finally), though it looks like it's about to make landfall in India soon. Still not sure if we'll see much come out of this invest. '[[User:Steve820 |'Steve820']] ''Talk to me''''' 01:09, November 17, 2015 (UTC)